Kalkas

Domain

Horse racing

What this domain declares to the engine. Every part below is read from the same declaration the engine runs; nothing here is written by hand for the site.

Horse racing — GB/IRE flat, win

See this domain’s recordAll domains

Questions

Each question class, its resolution rule, and when it closes. Rules are fixed when a question is created.

  • racing.win

    Resolution rule
    The runner finishes first in the official result; a non-runner or a void race resolves void.
    Closes at
    racecard.off_time

  • racing.win.jumps

    Resolution rule
    The runner finishes first in the official result of a GB or IRE jumps race (chase, hurdle, or NH flat); a non-runner or a void race resolves void.
    Closes at
    racecard.off_time

Sources

Where observations come from, what each source emits, and how many quality checks it must pass.

SourcesTransportEmitsChecks
racecardshttpracecard, runner, price3
racing-resultshttpresult2
racing-historyobjectresult, runner2
racing-oddshttpprice1

Forecasters

What answers the questions. The market is always one of them, as the baseline every other forecaster must beat.

ForecastersKindRole
racing-beliefmodelchampion
racing-marketmarket-

Pooling: Pooled by log_odds_pool, weighted by log_score_edge_vs_market, once a forecaster has 500 resolved questions.

Policy and limits

How a forecast may become an action, and the limits that bound it.

Gate metric
log_score_edge_vs_market
Share of the Kelly stake
25%
Margin kept after shrinking for uncertainty
50%
Minimum margin over the price
5%
Largest single stake, share of bankroll
0.68%
Largest open exposure, share of bankroll
5%
Drawdown that stops all action
20%
Sealed window
28 days
Shadow period before promotion
14 days

Actions

Every action type, where it goes, and its mode. Paper until the domain clears its gate.

ActionsChannelModePreconditions
back-winexchangepapergate-cleared, price-fresh, before-off, within-exposure
alerttelegrampaperdecision-recorded