The mean gain in log score over the market-implied probability recorded with each forecast. Above zero means the forecasts beat the market; zero means they add nothing to it.
Closing-line value
Whether the price taken was better than the final price before the event. Shown once the evaluator computes it.
Net profit and ROI after costs
The headline: net profit after commission and slippage, with a 95% interval, for settled paper actions, and for what the policy would have taken in simulation, each labelled. ROI is that net divided by the total staked.
Ladder rung
Where the domain stands: research, sealed history, paper forward, small live capital, or scaled capital, and what the next rung still needs. A domain drops back by itself when its record falls below its rung.
Selection-bias checks
Each model version scored is one trial, and looking often enough finds a winner by luck. Four tests count every trial and say whether the edge survives that search: the deflated Sharpe ratio, the online false-discovery result (SAFFRON), the probability of backtest overfitting (PBO), and the SPA p-value over all trials.
Sample
How many resolved forecasts a figure rests on. A small sample is shown, and labelled as the small sample it is.
Reading the ledger…
Reading the ledger…
Method
Only resolved questions are scored. Void and ambiguous outcomes are counted and never scored.
Only forecasts known before the question’s deadline are scored, and never a model version on questions decided before its training cutoff.
Every trial is counted, including versions that did badly. A sealed window of the most recent questions is scored apart and decides the gate.
Every forecast the engine records carries a SHA-256 digest and the time it was recorded. Forecasts carried over from earlier records are marked as imported in the ledger and were not committed before their events.
Everything is on paper until a domain clears its gate. No member money is pooled or managed.
Horse racing: Sealed window, scored apart for the gate
Forecaster
Question class
n
Log score vs market
Brier
Mean p / hit rate
aggregateaggregate
racing.win
4,851
0.0000
0.0736
0.089 / 0.093
racing-marketmarket baseline
racing.win
4,851
0.0000
0.0736
0.089 / 0.093
aggregateaggregate
racing.win.jumps
2,783
0.0000
0.0937
0.117 / 0.124
racing-marketmarket baseline
racing.win.jumps
2,783
0.0000
0.0937
0.117 / 0.124
What the evaluator counted
Trials (every version scored)
4
Resolved questions
11,995
Awaiting resolution
3,304
Void or ambiguous (never scored)
16
Known after the deadline (never scored)
435
Inside a training cutoff (never scored)
0
Selection-bias checks
Each version scored is a trial, and looking often enough finds a winner by luck. These four tests count every trial and say whether the edge survives that search: DSR (the deflated Sharpe ratio, discounted for how many trials were run), SAFFRON (the online false-discovery result for the trial at this level), PBO (the probability that the in-sample best is worse out of sample) and SPA (the p-value of the edge over the market across all trials). All four run over the sealed replay.
PBO
Not computed yet
SPA p
Not computed yet
Clears when
DSR at least 0.95, PBO at most 0.30, SPA p at most 0.05
DSR and SAFFRON are read per trial; PBO and SPA over all of them.
Selection-bias checks
Trial
DSR
Discovered
aggregate@log_odds_poolracing.win.jumps
0.4062
No
aggregate@log_odds_poolracing.win
0.5029
No
Calibration of the headline forecaster
Forecasts grouped by stated probability, against how often they came true.
Horse racing: Calibration of the headline forecaster
Recent activity only. Each decision links to its timestamped evidence; a result appears only for a forecast recorded before the event and outcome. Full settled history is available in the downloads below.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 2.5% (market 2.5%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:af9e4033c5009f8ce184d716eb9af0fd67c9b5c73c25952604afbbce711dcccc. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 0.4% (market 0.4%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:387f5c13d32bc5f96f2a90f10a682c58055ca4a29d93f79a5cd7351814dacd03. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 18.3% (market 18.3%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:eb989fb447c9e74c731c279161beb9fd8461de6289c72ca28b1fe291f3d20653. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 22.5% (market 22.5%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:17e034cb77b56a2a293bfaed2e3d711e1833c2712d0996961063fc9f9d0cd99e. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 20.9% (market 20.9%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:e953c47eab6ba58f109b74d78267940354afbeb13e9bb084c76d3f6dd71cfc82. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 2.2% (market 2.2%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:55a4f3a0c5c6b05dc135c56628079121a6d1f4959b823ed5fb024e450930c136. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 14.1% (market 14.1%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:20efce4a0fc0a7a8fefee3f2886fd22caa753db5a8460186722c5228d09a8c95. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 3.4% (market 3.4%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:fa8443aa99aaffc19c65850a6a82084a06cfef217b64681c274aa60952c1f9e4. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 2.7% (market 2.7%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:b5f24e99d0e3d9238f01d15507d79e7e92a98f41862b598d05be2fb3a19cafa5. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 28.3% (market 28.3%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:7d757a738c8b4ae7f3dff678bd82d5858969704e2bc660353f4cb83627190cb5. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 1.4% (market 1.4%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:31d047662c62793aac05d7e537dc949f3ce65d5cb9ccb5ff6adac79b728aa3f1. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 5.3% (market 5.3%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:f6910590413661fbc75e29c6ac8ef613e2b5d48f072c6c6dcb8ed6dbe939cedc. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 9.2% (market 9.2%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:77b8297656a729ba7cb806e4ff8a21ec0316561a3dee3a93771cb8e25492fb95. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 5.3% (market 5.3%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:a6535865e06ff38fe7dfe0632cb8eff0e6dd441322ba99df144f859c3aa286bb. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 11.7% (market 11.7%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:8a12d3cdc1ac4fd35feb1ac656b3aa986d6e586cbb0172165cde603cbfef4378. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 14.1% (market 14.1%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:2b4f53175fdd7b055fa62a0295f744d175d2f53fe5411eabfeff0aab3c9aa151. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 0.6% (market 0.6%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:c744c510bca296b9a1f2fadd91fda9a6d738a10d53fbc9751eebb3178ca47349. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 3.9% (market 3.9%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:b390fc3c7c7f485165518a8b6d13066f3b316c80ba08ff655fcbb21358c9e0e5. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 3.0% (market 3.0%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:865ca58974c18318a306809670b3c75c41366628b79946a7e25ab919b2a775f3. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 2.7% (market 2.7%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:5735f3ac145440773729e440fbd7622017b9e6a94f970ab19348545371513173. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 10.7% (market 10.7%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:d226510dc128bc93176126e68ab52fcc6cc60c1a968963f89417a59a1401d98e. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 14.1% (market 14.1%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:a28bb802dc6cb1287a827503a379218c530047c0879ce4137c8ab784e47a26c1. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 2.7% (market 2.7%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:827fd1f802663422f153d0f8acaa4cac91968e3277185fbaf33cb4d56d8303d5. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 4.5% (market 4.5%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:3fed5194f4b3c2c7097f0a0cfba890517e20f86012024f31795e3f43106005c1. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 3.0% (market 3.0%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:bbb4e6b9222d171ef846eb1db0f34ff7e762e681f16a9c80707f5c62c267b8bc. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 14.1% (market 14.1%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:15576bda58e1af40c0fd304488e7bdf1a0f4a518c80768cf25ee3fb4270d567f. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 3.4% (market 3.4%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:c3f32051b02f4de93bc759c09010d924c72b44964985733e1966d2d626365730. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 17.8% (market 17.8%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:417264c4f1f49477a631620178c6bb63db04cf56c70aac6bb604a73922056350. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 5.3% (market 5.3%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:6b834fdd0295b5f52f2f42dd82fc9e3628524e6ca8237eba5d297c1c691c04a2. Paper only; not advice.
Horse racing. Committed before the deadline: 12.8% (market 12.8%). Source: Market-implied probability. recorded 2026-11-02 07:01 UTC, digest sha256:9301d3da294583e7bc838c9f0bb5e19eeac269511dffe03edeb97c40f4dc9cc2. Paper only; not advice.
Latest engine stage receipts (UTC)
The hourly schedule wakes the engine; domain and model cadences decide what is due. These are recorded stage attempts, not proof of a successful retrain or a new backtest. Skipped stages produced no new result.