Domain
Company valuation
What this domain declares to the engine. Every part below is read from the same declaration the engine runs; nothing here is written by hand for the site.
Company valuation — US large caps, one year
Questions
Each question class, its resolution rule, and when it closes. Rules are fixed when a question is created.
valuation.beat-benchmark-1y
- Resolution rule
- The company's total return from the start-day close to the close a year on exceeds the benchmark's between the same days.
- Closes at
- the US open on the start day
valuation.band-contains-1y
- Resolution rule
- The company's price a year on, in start-day terms, lies within the owner-value band issued at the start.
- Closes at
- the US open on the start day
Sources
Where observations come from, what each source emits, and how many quality checks it must pass.
| Sources | Transport | Emits | Checks |
|---|---|---|---|
| universe | http | listing, index-member | 1 |
| market-bars | http | close | 2 |
| fundamentals | http | fundamentals | 2 |
| valuation-questions | internal | question | 1 |
| valuation-resolver | internal | resolution | 1 |
Forecasters
What answers the questions. The market is always one of them, as the baseline every other forecaster must beat.
| Forecasters | Kind | Role |
|---|---|---|
| valuation-market | market | - |
| vh-owner-value | formula | - |
| valuation-gbdt | model | champion |
Pooling: Pooled by log_odds_pool, weighted by log_score_edge_vs_market, once a forecaster has 200 resolved questions.
Policy and limits
How a forecast may become an action, and the limits that bound it.
- Gate metric
- log_score_edge_vs_market
- Share of the Kelly stake
- 25%
- Margin kept after shrinking for uncertainty
- 50%
- Minimum margin over the price
- 5%
- Largest single stake, share of bankroll
- 1%
- Largest open exposure, share of bankroll
- 5%
- Drawdown that stops all action
- 20%
- Sealed window
- 1095 days
- Shadow period before promotion
- 90 days
Actions
Every action type, where it goes, and its mode. Paper until the domain clears its gate.
| Actions | Channel | Mode | Preconditions |
|---|---|---|---|
| alert | telegram | paper | gate-cleared, decision-recorded |