The record · US equities
US equities: calibration and closing-line value
Do the probabilities mean what they say, and does the price taken beat the close? Both charts are drawn from the resolved-call ledger by the same rules as the scoreboard, with the sample size beside them.
Reliability diagram
Calls are grouped by the probability they stated. A calibrated forecaster’s dots sit on the diagonal; a bar that misses it is a claim the sample does not yet support. Bins with few calls have wide bars.
No forecast in this domain has resolved and been scored yet.
Closing-line value over time
Each act compares the price taken with the closing price observed after it. Above zero means the price taken was better than the close. Acts with no later closing price are not plotted.
n = 0 acts
Not enough resolved acts yet (n = 0)
Closing-line value needs at least 30 acts with a closing price observed after the decision.
not computable yet: no act has a closing price observed after its decision
Informational only, not advice and not an invitation to trade or bet. Everything runs on paper. Past results do not predict future ones.