A call on the record · Horse racing
Will Mbappe win the 20:30 at Kempton (AW)? · 7 Oct 2026
This call was recorded before the result and has since resolved. Everything below is read from the ledger, with the times it was recorded.
horse:hrs_35596540 · racing.win
ResolvedAll of this domain’s record
The question
- Resolution rule
- The runner finishes first in the official result; a non-runner or a void race resolves void.
- About
- horse:hrs_35596540
- Question class
- racing.win
- Closes at
- 2026-10-07 19:30 UTC (Europe/London)
- Resolved from
- racing-results
The forecast
- Probability of yes
- 7.5%
- Market-implied probability · aggregate · aggregate
- Market at the time
- 7.5%
- Market-implied probability recorded with the forecast.
- Source
- Market-implied probability
- Known at
- 2026-10-07 18:00 UTC
- Recorded at
- 2026-10-07 18:06 UTC
- Forecaster
- aggregate @ log_odds_pool
- SHA-256 digest
- sha256:1e3bb088b125142a7b4ce01077d1a7090b62aa78b6b92de988da40a52efddb58
- Provenance
- Committed by the engine before the event
The result
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution recorded at 2026-10-08 07:00 UTC
- Log loss
- 0.0783
- Lower is better: −ln of the probability given to what happened.
- Market log loss
- 0.0783
- The same measure for the recorded market price.
- Log-score gain over market
- 0.0000
- Market log loss minus the forecast’s. Above zero beats the market; zero ties it.
Recorded detail: finished 4
One call is a sample of one. It says nothing about how the forecaster does over many; the record page has the sample sizes.
Every forecast recorded on this question
| Forecaster | Kind | Probability | Market | Known at | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| aggregate | aggregate | 7.5% | 7.5% | 2026-10-07 18:00 UTC | Scored |
| racing-market | market | 7.5% | 7.5% | 2026-10-07 18:00 UTC | Scored |
| aggregate | aggregate | 8.6% | 8.6% | 2026-10-07 14:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 8.6% | 8.6% | 2026-10-07 14:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| aggregate | aggregate | 8.6% | 8.6% | 2026-10-07 10:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 8.6% | 8.6% | 2026-10-07 10:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| aggregate | aggregate | 8.5% | 8.5% | 2026-10-07 08:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 8.5% | 8.5% | 2026-10-07 08:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| aggregate | aggregate | 8.3% | 8.3% | 2026-10-07 07:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 8.3% | 8.3% | 2026-10-07 07:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
Embed this call
Paste this on your own page. It is a framed card with this call’s forecast, market price and result, read from the ledger each time it loads; it runs no script on your page and links back here.
<iframe src="https://kalkas.ai/record/racing/racing.win:rac_32300115575:hrs_35596540/embed" width="420" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Kalkas call"></iframe>Informational only, not advice and not an invitation to trade or bet. Everything runs on paper. Past results do not predict future ones.
The record