A call on the record · Horse racing
Will Lizzana win the 16:45 at Newmarket? · 9 Oct 2026
This call was recorded before the result and has since resolved. Everything below is read from the ledger, with the times it was recorded.
horse:hrs_57008469 · racing.win
ResolvedAll of this domain’s record
The question
- Resolution rule
- The runner finishes first in the official result; a non-runner or a void race resolves void.
- About
- horse:hrs_57008469
- Question class
- racing.win
- Closes at
- 2026-10-09 15:45 UTC (Europe/London)
- Resolved from
- racing-results
The forecast
- Probability of yes
- 3.9%
- Market-implied probability · aggregate · aggregate
- Market at the time
- 3.9%
- Market-implied probability recorded with the forecast.
- Source
- Market-implied probability
- Known at
- 2026-10-09 14:00 UTC
- Recorded at
- 2026-10-09 14:22 UTC
- Forecaster
- aggregate @ log_odds_pool
- SHA-256 digest
- sha256:7750273d25c1165d1a4b6b7eeb4e87a8513f976828ce59efdcade1001ed298ec
- Provenance
- Committed by the engine before the event
The result
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution recorded at 2026-10-10 07:00 UTC
- Log loss
- 0.0396
- Lower is better: −ln of the probability given to what happened.
- Market log loss
- 0.0396
- The same measure for the recorded market price.
- Log-score gain over market
- 0.0000
- Market log loss minus the forecast’s. Above zero beats the market; zero ties it.
Recorded detail: finished 13
One call is a sample of one. It says nothing about how the forecaster does over many; the record page has the sample sizes.
Every forecast recorded on this question
| Forecaster | Kind | Probability | Market | Known at | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| aggregate | aggregate | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2026-10-09 14:00 UTC | Scored |
| racing-market | market | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2026-10-09 14:00 UTC | Scored |
| aggregate | aggregate | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2026-10-09 10:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| aggregate | aggregate | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2026-10-09 08:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| aggregate | aggregate | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2026-10-09 07:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
Embed this call
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<iframe src="https://kalkas.ai/record/racing/racing.win:rac_32300384818:hrs_57008469/embed" width="420" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Kalkas call"></iframe>Informational only, not advice and not an invitation to trade or bet. Everything runs on paper. Past results do not predict future ones.
The record