A call on the record · Horse racing
Will Tropbien win the 16:28 at Newcastle (AW)? · 12 Oct 2026
This call was recorded before the result and has since resolved. Everything below is read from the ledger, with the times it was recorded.
horse:hrs_64102269 · racing.win
ResolvedAll of this domain’s record
The question
- Resolution rule
- The runner finishes first in the official result; a non-runner or a void race resolves void.
- About
- horse:hrs_64102269
- Question class
- racing.win
- Closes at
- 2026-10-12 15:28 UTC (Europe/London)
- Resolved from
- racing-results
The forecast
- Probability of yes
- 29.2%
- Market-implied probability · aggregate · aggregate
- Market at the time
- 29.2%
- Market-implied probability recorded with the forecast.
- Source
- Market-implied probability
- Known at
- 2026-10-12 14:00 UTC
- Recorded at
- 2026-10-12 14:31 UTC
- Forecaster
- aggregate @ log_odds_pool
- SHA-256 digest
- sha256:0648778b99b7d28f910d8c275a5d60ed92b05b75fe477d48ee257af9330c721c
- Provenance
- Committed by the engine before the event
The result
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution recorded at 2026-10-13 08:00 UTC
- Log loss
- 1.2309
- Lower is better: −ln of the probability given to what happened.
- Market log loss
- 1.2309
- The same measure for the recorded market price.
- Log-score gain over market
- 0.0000
- Market log loss minus the forecast’s. Above zero beats the market; zero ties it.
Recorded detail: finished 1
One call is a sample of one. It says nothing about how the forecaster does over many; the record page has the sample sizes.
Every forecast recorded on this question
| Forecaster | Kind | Probability | Market | Known at | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| aggregate | aggregate | 29.2% | 29.2% | 2026-10-12 14:00 UTC | Scored |
| racing-market | market | 29.2% | 29.2% | 2026-10-12 14:00 UTC | Scored |
| aggregate | aggregate | 25.4% | 25.4% | 2026-10-12 10:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 25.4% | 25.4% | 2026-10-12 10:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| aggregate | aggregate | 25.4% | 25.4% | 2026-10-12 08:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 25.4% | 25.4% | 2026-10-12 08:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| aggregate | aggregate | 30.2% | 30.2% | 2026-10-12 07:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 30.2% | 30.2% | 2026-10-12 07:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
Embed this call
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<iframe src="https://kalkas.ai/record/racing/racing.win:rac_32300731541:hrs_64102269/embed" width="420" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Kalkas call"></iframe>Informational only, not advice and not an invitation to trade or bet. Everything runs on paper. Past results do not predict future ones.
The record