A call on the record · Horse racing
Will Chief Minister win the 14:17 at Bath? · 19 Oct 2026
This call was recorded before the result and has since resolved. Everything below is read from the ledger, with the times it was recorded.
horse:hrs_60819143 · racing.win
ResolvedAll of this domain’s record
The question
- Resolution rule
- The runner finishes first in the official result; a non-runner or a void race resolves void.
- About
- horse:hrs_60819143
- Question class
- racing.win
- Closes at
- 2026-10-19 13:17 UTC (Europe/London)
- Resolved from
- racing-results
The forecast
- Probability of yes
- 21.9%
- Market-implied probability · aggregate · aggregate
- Market at the time
- 21.9%
- Market-implied probability recorded with the forecast.
- Source
- Market-implied probability
- Known at
- 2026-10-19 10:00 UTC
- Recorded at
- 2026-10-19 10:24 UTC
- Forecaster
- aggregate @ log_odds_pool
- SHA-256 digest
- sha256:180937c613f39a466c7ca549b6504ae5ea11082a890e3b3b0098028c6854544c
- Provenance
- Committed by the engine before the event
The result
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution recorded at 2026-10-20 07:00 UTC
- Log loss
- 0.2467
- Lower is better: −ln of the probability given to what happened.
- Market log loss
- 0.2467
- The same measure for the recorded market price.
- Log-score gain over market
- 0.0000
- Market log loss minus the forecast’s. Above zero beats the market; zero ties it.
Recorded detail: finished 9
One call is a sample of one. It says nothing about how the forecaster does over many; the record page has the sample sizes.
Every forecast recorded on this question
| Forecaster | Kind | Probability | Market | Known at | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| aggregate | aggregate | 21.9% | 21.9% | 2026-10-19 10:00 UTC | Scored |
| racing-market | market | 21.9% | 21.9% | 2026-10-19 10:00 UTC | Scored |
| aggregate | aggregate | 19.2% | 19.2% | 2026-10-19 08:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 19.2% | 19.2% | 2026-10-19 08:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| aggregate | aggregate | 18.7% | 18.7% | 2026-10-19 07:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 18.7% | 18.7% | 2026-10-19 07:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
Embed this call
Paste this on your own page. It is a framed card with this call’s forecast, market price and result, read from the ledger each time it loads; it runs no script on your page and links back here.
<iframe src="https://kalkas.ai/record/racing/racing.win:rac_32301541207:hrs_60819143/embed" width="420" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Kalkas call"></iframe>Informational only, not advice and not an invitation to trade or bet. Everything runs on paper. Past results do not predict future ones.
The record