A call on the record · Horse racing
Will Lilac Lady win the 14:35 at Sligo? · 23 Oct 2026
This call was recorded before the result and has since resolved. Everything below is read from the ledger, with the times it was recorded.
horse:hrs_31300367 · racing.win.jumps
ResolvedAll of this domain’s record
The question
- Resolution rule
- The runner finishes first in the official result of a GB or IRE jumps race (chase, hurdle, or NH flat); a non-runner or a void race resolves void.
- About
- horse:hrs_31300367
- Question class
- racing.win.jumps
- Closes at
- 2026-10-23 13:35 UTC (Europe/Dublin)
- Resolved from
- racing-results
The forecast
- Probability of yes
- 4.2%
- Market-implied probability · aggregate · aggregate
- Market at the time
- 4.2%
- Market-implied probability recorded with the forecast.
- Source
- Market-implied probability
- Known at
- 2026-10-23 10:00 UTC
- Recorded at
- 2026-10-23 10:03 UTC
- Forecaster
- aggregate @ log_odds_pool
- SHA-256 digest
- sha256:a794f56a874c987ee9041be7e5efdb9c973fcad3d1c3bf7a6d2d5c1ba1f0990c
- Provenance
- Committed by the engine before the event
The result
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution recorded at 2026-10-24 07:00 UTC
- Log loss
- 0.0431
- Lower is better: −ln of the probability given to what happened.
- Market log loss
- 0.0431
- The same measure for the recorded market price.
- Log-score gain over market
- 0.0000
- Market log loss minus the forecast’s. Above zero beats the market; zero ties it.
Recorded detail: finished 10
One call is a sample of one. It says nothing about how the forecaster does over many; the record page has the sample sizes.
Every forecast recorded on this question
| Forecaster | Kind | Probability | Market | Known at | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| aggregate | aggregate | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2026-10-23 10:00 UTC | Scored |
| racing-market | market | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2026-10-23 10:00 UTC | Scored |
| aggregate | aggregate | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2026-10-23 08:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2026-10-23 08:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| aggregate | aggregate | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2026-10-23 07:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
| racing-market | market | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2026-10-23 07:00 UTC | Replaced by a later forecast |
Embed this call
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<iframe src="https://kalkas.ai/record/racing/racing.win:rac_32302116496:hrs_31300367/embed" width="420" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Kalkas call"></iframe>Informational only, not advice and not an invitation to trade or bet. Everything runs on paper. Past results do not predict future ones.
The record